The end of the coronavirus pandemic is “in sight” according to the World Health Organisation’s special envoy on Covid-19 who acknowledged a “difficult” few months lay ahead first.
Dr David Nabarro compared the situation to a long-distance race which the world is slowly moving through but suggested most counties are well past the half-way mark.
He said: “I’m afraid we are moving through the marathon but there’s no actual way to say that we’re at the end – we can see the end in sight, but we’re not there. And there’s going to be some bumps before we get there. And I can’t tell you how bad they’re going to be, but I can at least tell you what I’m expecting.
“First of all, this virus is continuing to evolve – we have Omicron but we’ll get more variants. Secondly, it really is affecting the whole world.
And, whilst health services in Western Europe are just about coping, in many other parts of the world, they are completely overwhelmed. And thirdly, it’s really clear that there’s no scope for major restrictions in any country, particularly poor countries.
“People have just got to keep working and so there are some very tough choices for politicians right now. It’s going to be difficult for the next three months at least.”
However, UK-based scientists were sceptical that such a prediction could be made.
Dr Gail Carson, deputy chair of the Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network at the University of Oxford, said: “This pandemic will continue until all countries have what they need to bring the pandemic under control. We are one world, interconnected as this pandemic has clearly shown us.
“It has also shown all countries weaknesses in health care systems, society – the impoverished, politics, the economy and the need to get out of this together. So, it is up to all of us to bring that light at the end closer into view and to build back stronger as a global community.”
David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said countries will likely arrive at the end of the pandemic at different times, depending on their level of population immunity, and then be susceptible to periodic resurgence as occurs with the four other endemic coronaviruses that have increased transmission in the winter months to cause symptoms of the common cold.
“If the WHO announces the end of the pandemic it will likely be when all countries reach a high level of population immunity as measured by the seriousness of illness, hospital admissions and death,” he said.
Dr Nabarro predicted more Covid surges following the arrival of the Omicron variant and that living with Covid means countries being able to prepare for them and to react and “really quickly” when they occur.
“Life can go on, we can get the economy going again in many countries, but we just have to be really respectful of the virus and that means having really good plans in place for dealing with the surges,” he said.
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