Tanker Market Benefits From Ton-Mile Demand Increase – Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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in Hellenic Shipping News 06/08/2022
Teekay Tankers added that “looking ahead, an increase in oil demand over the medium-term is expected, with the IEA forecasting 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) growth in 2022 and a further 2.1 mb/d growth in 2023, despite high oil prices and concerns over the health of the global economy. Much of this growth is expected to be driven by the non-OECD and in particular by China. While strict lockdowns have capped Chinese oil demand for much of the past year, there have been some reduced restrictions in recent weeks, with any significant or sustained movement in that direction likely to necessitate increased oil imports in China. Global oil supply is also rising, driven by both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, with the IEA forecasting an increase of 1.8 mb/d in global oil production between June and December 2022. However, it remains to be seen how Russian oil supply and exports will be impacted once the EU embargo on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect at the end of 2022. In addition, concerns surrounding the health of the global economy due to rising interest rates and inflation, and the potential for further COVID-19 lockdowns in China, are key areas of uncertainty in the coming months”.

The ship owner added that “the outlook for tanker fleet supply continues to be very positive driven by historic low levels of new tanker orders, a rapidly shrinking orderbook, and an aging tanker fleet. Only 2.1 million deadweight tons (mdwt) of tanker orders were placed in the first half of 2022, which is the lowest total for a 6-month period since Clarksons started reporting data in 1996. Furthermore, most of this ordering has been smaller tankers, with no VLCC or Suezmax orders placed since June 2021 and only a small number of Aframaxes ordered. The Company expects that the level of new tanker orders will remain low in the near-term due to high newbuilding prices, a lack of yard space through the end of 2025 due to record levels of containership and LNG carrier orders, and continued uncertainty over vessel technology. With a diminishing orderbook and an aging fleet, the Company expects minimal global fleet growth in 2023 and for negative fleet growth in 2024 and 2025 as removals are expected to outweigh new deliveries into the world fleet”.
“In summary, recent months have seen average spot rates significantly higher year-on-year and a return of tanker market volatility driven by changing trade patterns and longer voyage distances in the mid-size sectors; the Company anticipates that this volatility will continue in the near-term. Looking further ahead, tanker supply and demand fundamentals currently look very positive, with the best fleet supply fundamentals seen in more than 25 years and steady demand growth as global oil consumption continues to rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic”, Teekay Tankers concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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