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U.S. Gas Prices Fall Below $4 a Gallon, AAA Says. Here’s Why. – The New York Times

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After peaking in June, they are back where they were in March, offering some relief to consumers and policymakers amid inflation worries.
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This article is part of our Daily Business Briefing

Gas prices in the United States fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday, retreating to their lowest level since March, a sign of relief for Americans struggling with historically high inflation and a political boost for President Biden, who has been under pressure to do more to bring down prices.
The national average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline now stands at $3.99, according to AAA. That’s still higher than it was a year ago but well below a peak of nearly $5.02 in mid-June. The average price has fallen for 58 consecutive days.
Energy costs feed into broad measures of inflation, so the drop is also good news for policymakers who have struggled to contain rising prices. It is a welcome development for Mr. Biden, who has spent recent weeks trumpeting the drop in gasoline prices, even as he pledges to do more to bring costs down. Mr. Biden has criticized oil companies for their record profits, and this year he released some of the nation’s stockpile of oil in an effort to reduce price pressures.
More than half the cost of gasoline at the pump is determined by global oil prices, which have tumbled to their lowest point since the war in Ukraine began in February, a drop that reflects in part the growing concern of a worldwide recession that will hit demand for crude.
The decline below $4 per gallon “is providing much-needed breathing room for families across the country,” Cecilia Rouse, the head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in a statement, citing it as one example of recent “encouraging economic developments.”
Gas prices are falling. In August, U.S. gas prices retreated to their lowest level since March, providing relief for Americans overwhelmed by high prices at the pump. Here is what to know:
Demand is pushing prices down. As gas prices rose, people adjusted their driving habits to accommodate prices, which reached an all-time high in June. Fewer drivers on the road has made gasoline more affordable, and some states have also suspended taxes on gasoline to bring prices down.
Oil prices have fallen. Just two months ago, oil prices, which are tied to gas prices, surpassed $120 a barrel, helping to push the national average price of gasoline to about $5 a gallon. But prices have steadily decreased with increased oil production, helping to bring gas prices down and easing broader recession fears.
Gas prices vary. Despite the overall decline, the cost of gas can vary considerably at the state level. In California, regulations to limit pollution make driving more expensive, so gas prices will be higher than in a state like Georgia, which has lower gas taxes.
A political boost for Joe Biden. The cheaper prices are a political win for President Biden, especially as falling fuel costs have brought down overall inflation. But experts are unsure that the low prices will last, as oil prices are volatile and determined by myriad forces, many of which are hard to predict.
For consumers, falling gas prices offer a respite from a shaky economy, rapid inflation and other worries. “We have new rising diseases and inflation, and people expect a recession,” said Zindy Contreras, a student and part-time waitress in Los Angeles. “If I just had to not worry about my gas tank taking up $70, that’d be a huge relief, for once.”
Ms. Contreras has been filling up her 2008 Mazda 3 only halfway as a result of the higher prices, costing her $25 to $30 each visit to the pump, and she had found opportunities to car-pool with friends. These days, Ms. Contreras usually gets gas twice a week, driving 15 miles to and from work each week and an additional 10 to 50 miles a week, depending on her plans.
The national average price masks wide regional variations. Prices vary according to the health of local economies, proximity to refineries and state taxes, said Devin Gladden, a spokesman with AAA.
In California, for example, regulations to limit pollution make driving more expensive, with the average price of gas $5.38 a gallon in the state and some counties recording averages well over $6. In Georgia, which has lower gas taxes and is close to refineries, the average price is about $3.55 a gallon.
But broadly speaking, the general drop in gas prices reflects a number of factors: weaker demand because of high costs, a sharp decline in global oil prices in recent months and the suspension of taxes on gasoline in a handful of states.
Nearly two-thirds of people in a recent AAA survey said they had altered their driving habits because of high prices, mostly by taking fewer trips and combining errands. On Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries revised down its forecast for global oil demand this year.
Regardless of the causes, the lower prices are a welcome change for drivers for whom the added expense — often $10 to $15 extra for a tank of gas — had become yet another hurdle as they sought to get their lives back to normal as the coronavirus pandemic eased.
“The affordability squeeze is becoming very real when you see these high prices at the gas pump,” said Beth Ann Bovino, the U.S. chief economist at S&P Global. “So, in that sense, it’s a positive sign certainly for those folks that are struggling.”
That cushion — cash not spent on gasoline that can go elsewhere — also extends to businesses, particularly as the price of diesel fuel drops. Diesel, which is used to fuel, for instance, farm equipment, construction machinery and long-haul trucks, has also fallen from a June record, though at a slower pace than gasoline prices.
The drop in the price of gas is also good news for the economy, as businesses face less pressure to pass energy costs on to their customers — a move that would add to the country’s inflation problem.
The government reported this week that consumer price inflation slowed in July to a still-high annual rate of 8.5 percent, down from 9.1 percent in June, thanks largely to the drop in gasoline prices. If it persists, the slowdown in inflation could allow the Federal Reserve to ease up on its campaign to raise interest rates.
Even as they watch prices fall, some wonder if this is a temporary reversal.
“I’m not ready for it to go a little higher again and then I’m over here struggling to fill up my tank,” said Christina Beliard, a 27-year-old fashion influencer in Bridgeport, Conn.
Ms. Beliard bought a Jeep Wrangler last year but now regrets the purchase because the vehicle is not as fuel-efficient as the Toyota Camry she drove before. For work, she sometimes needs to drive to locations for her accounts on TikTok and Instagram, platforms on which she promotes brands, and to attend events in New York City, which is about 60 miles from her home.
Connecticut suspended its tax on gasoline through November. And Ms. Beliard, who had been spending from $95 to $100 a week to fuel up her Jeep, is now paying $74 to $80. Still, she is weary of the high tab.
“I’m trying to figure out, how long is this going to last?” she said.
That’s a difficult question to answer. Oil prices are volatile and subject to myriad forces, many of which are hard to predict. There are several reasons that they could rise again: The course of the war in Ukraine could further hamper global oil supplies, energy investors’ views on the economy could change or hurricanes later this year could damage Gulf Coast refineries and pipelines, choking off supplies.
For now, though, the steady drop in the cost of fuel offers Americans a reprieve.
“If gasoline prices stay at or near the levels they have reached, that would mean much more cushion for households,” Ms. Bovino said.
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